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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+4.81vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.50+6.86vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.62+5.38vs Predicted
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4University of Miami2.66+4.30vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45+3.86vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.50+3.09vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.76+0.82vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.03+2.60vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College3.06-2.25vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.18+0.04vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin2.65-2.45vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont2.11-1.56vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-4.91vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.39-4.51vs Predicted
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15Tufts University2.07-4.33vs Predicted
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16Fordham University2.16-5.60vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-6.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.81St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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8.86George Washington University2.500.1%1st Place
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8.38Georgetown University2.620.1%1st Place
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8.3University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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8.86U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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9.09Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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7.82U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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10.6University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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6.75SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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10.04Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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8.55University of Wisconsin2.650.1%1st Place
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10.44University of Vermont2.110.0%1st Place
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8.09Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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9.49Yale University2.390.0%1st Place
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10.67Tufts University2.070.0%1st Place
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10.4Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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10.85U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 13.5% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Priebe | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.6% |
| Edward Cook | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 2.8% |
| Atlee Kohl | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.2% |
| Emily Bornarth | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% |
| Cameron Wood | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.0% |
| Gavin McJones | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 13.5% |
| Benton Amthor | 8.7% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% |
| Christian Spencer | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 2.9% |
| Connell Phillipps | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.3% |
| Charles Carraway | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% |
| Nathan Sih | 4.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 4.6% |
| Connor Sheridan | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 12.2% |
| Clayton Snyder | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 10.1% |
| Lucas Sawin | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 13.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.