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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+4.89vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.50+6.77vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin2.65+5.27vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.76+3.90vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+2.82vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College3.06+0.75vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont2.11+3.49vs Predicted
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8University of Miami2.66+0.10vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.16+1.50vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.50-1.29vs Predicted
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11Yale University2.39-1.48vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.03-1.25vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.18-2.64vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45-4.76vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-4.25vs Predicted
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16Tufts University2.07-5.28vs Predicted
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17Georgetown University2.62-8.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.89St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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8.77Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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8.27University of Wisconsin2.650.1%1st Place
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7.9U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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7.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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6.75SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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10.49University of Vermont2.110.0%1st Place
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8.1University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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10.5Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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8.71George Washington University2.500.1%1st Place
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9.52Yale University2.390.1%1st Place
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10.75University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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10.36Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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9.24U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.0%1st Place
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10.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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10.72Tufts University2.070.0%1st Place
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8.45Georgetown University2.620.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 13.4% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Cameron Wood | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.4% |
| Christian Spencer | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% |
| Gavin McJones | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% |
| Charles Carraway | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.7% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Connell Phillipps | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 8.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 7.9% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.8% |
| Clayton Snyder | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 10.6% |
| Matthew Priebe | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.6% |
| Nathan Sih | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 12.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.8% |
| Emily Bornarth | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.6% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 13.6% |
| Connor Sheridan | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 12.1% |
| Edward Cook | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.