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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+4.86vs Predicted
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2University of Wisconsin2.65+6.20vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.50+5.91vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+4.10vs Predicted
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5University of Miami2.66+3.03vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.03+5.03vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.62+1.36vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.07+2.42vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.50+0.07vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45-1.06vs Predicted
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11Yale University2.39-1.50vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont2.11-1.55vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College3.06-6.33vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.76-6.04vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University2.18-4.78vs Predicted
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16Fordham University2.16-5.57vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-6.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.86St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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8.2University of Wisconsin2.650.1%1st Place
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8.91George Washington University2.500.1%1st Place
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8.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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8.03University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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11.03University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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8.36Georgetown University2.620.1%1st Place
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10.42Tufts University2.070.0%1st Place
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9.07Roger Williams University2.500.0%1st Place
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8.94U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.0%1st Place
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9.5Yale University2.390.1%1st Place
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10.45University of Vermont2.110.0%1st Place
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6.67SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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7.96U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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10.22Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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10.43Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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10.85U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 13.2% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Christian Spencer | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% |
| Matthew Priebe | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.0% |
| Charles Carraway | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.3% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 2.6% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 13.9% |
| Edward Cook | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 2.2% |
| Connor Sheridan | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 11.8% |
| Cameron Wood | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.4% |
| Emily Bornarth | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.5% |
| Nathan Sih | 5.2% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% |
| Connell Phillipps | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 10.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Gavin McJones | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.8% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.7% |
| Clayton Snyder | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 10.0% |
| Lucas Sawin | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 13.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.