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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.93+5.09vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.83+4.51vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.63+4.39vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+5.77vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.76+5.68vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.13+3.57vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.19+2.15vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-2.02vs Predicted
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9University of Miami2.27+0.05vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+1.26vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-3.46vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.93-1.85vs Predicted
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13Yale University1.67-1.66vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63-6.50vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.40-6.78vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin2.09-6.41vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont1.11-3.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.09Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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6.51University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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7.39Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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9.77U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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10.68Tufts University1.760.0%1st Place
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9.57Roger Williams University2.130.0%1st Place
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9.15SUNY Maritime College2.190.1%1st Place
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5.98St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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9.05University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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11.26St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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7.54Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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10.15Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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11.34Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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7.5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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8.22U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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9.59University of Wisconsin2.090.0%1st Place
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13.21University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Mais | 11.9% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 9.8% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Porter Kavle | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Michael Burns | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 8.9% |
| Riley Read | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 4.8% |
| Nick Chisari | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.7% |
| Owen Hennessey | 13.0% | 11.7% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 11.3% |
| Will Murray | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 6.9% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 12.8% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| Trenton Shaw | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.0% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 4.1% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.2% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 9.5% | 14.9% | 31.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.