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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.89vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.83+4.57vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.93+3.26vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.40+4.33vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+2.16vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+5.55vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+0.42vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+1.58vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.19+0.34vs Predicted
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10Yale University1.67+1.06vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.13-1.47vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin2.09-2.43vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.11+0.25vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.63-6.50vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.93-4.84vs Predicted
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16Tufts University1.76-5.06vs Predicted
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17University of Miami2.27-8.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.89St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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6.57University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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6.26Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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8.33U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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7.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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11.55St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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7.42U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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9.58U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
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9.34SUNY Maritime College2.190.0%1st Place
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11.06Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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9.53Roger Williams University2.130.1%1st Place
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9.57University of Wisconsin2.090.0%1st Place
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13.25University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
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7.5Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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10.16Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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10.94Tufts University1.760.0%1st Place
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8.9University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 12.8% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Jordan Bruce | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Scott Mais | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Trenton Shaw | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 1.7% |
| Will Murray | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 13.7% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Michael Burns | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.7% |
| Nick Chisari | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.4% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 10.8% |
| Riley Read | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.3% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 4.8% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 11.1% | 12.9% | 32.1% |
| Porter Kavle | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 6.7% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 9.4% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.