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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.93+5.08vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.96vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+4.35vs Predicted
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4University of Miami2.27+4.90vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.13+4.16vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.83+0.83vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.63+0.40vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+3.18vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63-1.44vs Predicted
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10Yale University1.67+1.09vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.11+2.17vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin2.09-2.46vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.93-2.60vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-4.13vs Predicted
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15Tufts University1.76-4.13vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.19-6.71vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy2.40-8.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.08Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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5.96St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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7.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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8.9University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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9.16Roger Williams University2.130.0%1st Place
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6.83University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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7.4Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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11.18St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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7.56U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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11.09Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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13.17University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
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9.54University of Wisconsin2.090.0%1st Place
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10.4Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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9.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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10.87Tufts University1.760.0%1st Place
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9.29SUNY Maritime College2.190.0%1st Place
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8.35U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Mais | 12.5% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.8% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Will Murray | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Aidan Dennis | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.3% |
| Riley Read | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 3.3% |
| Jordan Bruce | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Porter Kavle | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.8% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 13.7% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 10.1% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 33.5% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 6.5% |
| Michael Burns | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 4.0% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 10.5% |
| Nick Chisari | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% |
| Trenton Shaw | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.