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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.83+5.49vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.93+4.13vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.09vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+3.48vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.19+3.98vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.63+1.56vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+2.74vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+3.12vs Predicted
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9Yale University1.67+2.40vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.76+0.77vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.93-0.67vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin2.09-2.44vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-5.53vs Predicted
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14University of Miami2.27-5.03vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.40-6.76vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University2.13-6.55vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont1.11-3.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.49University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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6.13Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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6.09St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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7.48U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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8.98SUNY Maritime College2.190.0%1st Place
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7.56Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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9.74U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
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11.12St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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11.4Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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10.77Tufts University1.760.0%1st Place
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10.33Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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9.56University of Wisconsin2.090.0%1st Place
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7.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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8.97University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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8.24U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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9.45Roger Williams University2.130.0%1st Place
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13.21University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Bruce | 11.0% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Scott Mais | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.0% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Nick Chisari | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% |
| Porter Kavle | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Michael Burns | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 13.3% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 12.7% | 12.4% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.7% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 6.8% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 4.2% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 4.4% |
| Will Murray | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| Trenton Shaw | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| Riley Read | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 9.8% | 13.9% | 32.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.