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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University1.93+8.90vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+9.35vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.83+3.66vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+3.43vs Predicted
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5Yale University1.67+5.92vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.63+1.60vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+0.33vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.93-1.81vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.19+0.38vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-3.99vs Predicted
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11University of Miami2.27-2.07vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.76-1.13vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.40-4.54vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-4.15vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin2.09-5.47vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University2.13-6.60vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont1.11-3.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.9Old Dominion University1.930.1%1st Place
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11.35St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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6.66University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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7.43U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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10.92Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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7.6Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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7.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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6.19Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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9.38SUNY Maritime College2.190.0%1st Place
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6.01St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.93University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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10.87Tufts University1.760.0%1st Place
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8.46U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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9.85U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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9.53University of Wisconsin2.090.0%1st Place
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9.4Roger Williams University2.130.0%1st Place
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13.19University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Purrington | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 5.7% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 13.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 9.3% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 11.7% |
| Porter Kavle | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% |
| Will Murray | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Scott Mais | 11.4% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Nick Chisari | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Aidan Dennis | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 2.9% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 10.2% |
| Trenton Shaw | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.6% |
| Michael Burns | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.0% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 4.0% |
| Riley Read | 4.4% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.5% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 14.3% | 32.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.