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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.83+5.46vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.93+4.20vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+4.45vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.19vs Predicted
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5University of Miami2.27+3.64vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+5.58vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.63+0.42vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-0.72vs Predicted
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9Yale University1.67+2.40vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont1.11+3.16vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-1.11vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.76-1.12vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.19-3.70vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.40-5.53vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.93-4.79vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin2.24-6.97vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University2.13-7.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.46University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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6.2Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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7.45U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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6.19St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.64University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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11.58St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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7.42Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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7.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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11.4Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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13.16University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
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9.89U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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10.88Tufts University1.760.0%1st Place
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9.3SUNY Maritime College2.190.0%1st Place
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8.47U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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10.21Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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9.03University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
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9.44Roger Williams University2.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Bruce | 10.6% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Scott Mais | 11.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.6% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 14.5% |
| Porter Kavle | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Will Murray | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 12.9% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 13.9% | 29.2% |
| Michael Burns | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 11.8% | 10.8% |
| Nick Chisari | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% |
| Trenton Shaw | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% |
| Samuel Bartel | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% |
| Riley Read | 3.6% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 4.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.