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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+6.29vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.93+8.18vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.93+3.33vs Predicted
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4University of Miami2.27+4.99vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.63+2.30vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+0.29vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.83-0.28vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-0.72vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.40-0.45vs Predicted
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10Yale University1.67+1.23vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+0.58vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.35-3.45vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.13-3.40vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin2.24-4.84vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-5.23vs Predicted
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16Tufts University1.76-5.02vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont1.11-3.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.29U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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10.18Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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6.33Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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8.99University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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7.3Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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6.29St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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6.72University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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7.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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8.55U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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11.23Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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11.58St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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8.55SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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9.6Roger Williams University2.130.0%1st Place
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9.16University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
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9.77U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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10.98Tufts University1.760.0%1st Place
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13.21University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.7% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.1% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 5.8% |
| Scott Mais | 10.3% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 2.8% |
| Porter Kavle | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Jordan Bruce | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Will Murray | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Trenton Shaw | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 11.7% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 16.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% |
| Riley Read | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.1% |
| Samuel Bartel | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 2.7% |
| Michael Burns | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 10.3% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 14.6% | 31.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.