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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.96vs Predicted
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2University of Miami2.27+6.83vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.13+6.40vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+3.47vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.35+3.36vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.63+1.59vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+4.50vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.40+0.17vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63-1.32vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.93-3.75vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.83-4.17vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.93-1.76vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.76-1.94vs Predicted
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14Yale University1.67-2.54vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-5.20vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont1.11-2.73vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin2.24-7.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.96St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.83University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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9.4Roger Williams University2.130.0%1st Place
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7.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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8.36SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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7.59Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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11.5St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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8.17U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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7.68U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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6.25Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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6.83University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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10.24Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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11.06Tufts University1.760.0%1st Place
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11.46Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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9.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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13.27University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
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9.12University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 13.2% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 1.8% |
| Riley Read | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% |
| Will Murray | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.8% |
| Porter Kavle | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 12.0% |
| Trenton Shaw | 7.2% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.9% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Scott Mais | 10.4% | 10.6% | 7.3% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Jordan Bruce | 10.5% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 11.0% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 13.5% |
| Michael Burns | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.7% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 10.2% | 15.2% | 29.7% |
| Samuel Bartel | 4.5% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.