← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
18.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy2.40+6.73vs Predicted
-
2Old Dominion University1.93+7.55vs Predicted
-
3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+3.92vs Predicted
-
4Fordham University2.63+3.16vs Predicted
-
5SUNY Maritime College2.35+3.08vs Predicted
-
6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-0.16vs Predicted
-
7University of Miami2.27+1.51vs Predicted
-
8University of Vermont1.11+4.32vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63-2.04vs Predicted
-
10Georgetown University2.93-4.08vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-1.83vs Predicted
-
12University of Wisconsin2.09-2.96vs Predicted
-
13Yale University1.67-2.47vs Predicted
-
14University of Pennsylvania2.09-5.06vs Predicted
-
15Roger Williams University2.13-6.02vs Predicted
-
16Tufts University1.76-5.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.73U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
-
9.55Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
-
6.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
-
7.16Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
-
8.08SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
-
5.84St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
-
8.51University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
-
12.32University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
-
6.96U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
-
5.92Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
-
9.17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
-
9.04University of Wisconsin2.090.1%1st Place
-
10.53Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
-
8.94University of Pennsylvania2.090.1%1st Place
-
8.98Roger Williams University2.130.1%1st Place
-
10.38Tufts University1.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trenton Shaw | 5.8% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% |
| Will Murray | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Porter Kavle | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 2.3% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.2% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Aidan Dennis | 7.3% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 15.9% | 31.9% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% |
| Scott Mais | 11.8% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Michael Burns | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 5.2% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.1% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.7% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 12.8% |
| Samuel Gavula | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.4% |
| Riley Read | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 11.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.