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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.67+1.46vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.06+1.49vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles0.11+2.81vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University-0.54+3.75vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.46+2.66vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-0.07+0.25vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.49-2.29vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-0.90+1.14vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.13+4.07vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-1.95+2.64vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-1.07-1.44vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-2.35+2.41vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-1.77-1.14vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-2.02-0.94vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-1.97-2.36vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands-1.97-3.36vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.34-2.96vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.50-3.48vs Predicted
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19San Diego State University-1.80-6.90vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-2.68-5.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.46University of Southern California1.670.4%1st Place
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3.49University of California at Los Angeles1.060.2%1st Place
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5.81University of California at Los Angeles0.110.1%1st Place
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7.75San Diego State University-0.540.0%1st Place
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7.66University of California at Santa Cruz-0.460.0%1st Place
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6.25University of California at San Diego-0.070.1%1st Place
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4.71Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.490.1%1st Place
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9.14Arizona State University-0.900.0%1st Place
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13.07Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.130.0%1st Place
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12.64University of California at Los Angeles-1.950.0%1st Place
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9.56University of California at San Diego-1.070.0%1st Place
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14.41University of California at Los Angeles-2.350.0%1st Place
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11.86Arizona State University-1.770.0%1st Place
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13.06University of California at San Diego-2.020.0%1st Place
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12.64California State University Channel Islands-1.970.0%1st Place
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12.64California State University Channel Islands-1.970.0%1st Place
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14.04Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.340.0%1st Place
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14.52Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.500.0%1st Place
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12.1San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
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14.81University of California at San Diego-2.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Winsor | 35.1% | 26.4% | 17.2% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 20.3% | 19.0% | 18.0% | 14.0% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zack Taylor | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Burton | 3.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Zemke | 3.2% | 3.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vivin Vinil | 6.5% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kisling | 10.4% | 11.4% | 14.7% | 16.0% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Powers | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Walden Hillegass | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| Deven Douglas | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 0.0% |
| Sean Lipps | 1.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Gallagher | 0.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 13.9% | 14.9% | 0.0% |
| Antoine Kepczyk | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Hickey | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| Declan Dury | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| Declan Dury | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| Colin Thompson | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 0.0% |
| Alex Rosenbaum | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 18.3% | 0.0% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Weil | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 15.1% | 19.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.