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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.67+1.48vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz-0.46+5.53vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles1.06+0.58vs Predicted
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4Arizona State University-0.90+5.00vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University-0.29+2.15vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.49-1.22vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine-0.66+1.20vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-0.07-1.52vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.11-3.26vs Predicted
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10California State University Channel Islands-1.97+2.65vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.13+2.24vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-1.95+0.96vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands-1.97-0.35vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-2.53+0.36vs Predicted
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15San Diego State University-1.80-2.79vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.50-1.73vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-2.35-3.08vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.34-4.16vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-2.68-3.96vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-2.02-7.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.48University of Southern California1.670.3%1st Place
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7.53University of California at Santa Cruz-0.460.0%1st Place
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3.58University of California at Los Angeles1.060.2%1st Place
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9.0Arizona State University-0.900.0%1st Place
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7.15San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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4.78Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.490.1%1st Place
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8.2University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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6.48University of California at San Diego-0.070.1%1st Place
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5.74University of California at Los Angeles0.110.1%1st Place
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12.65California State University Channel Islands-1.970.0%1st Place
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13.24Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.130.0%1st Place
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12.96University of California at Los Angeles-1.950.0%1st Place
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12.65California State University Channel Islands-1.970.0%1st Place
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14.36Arizona State University-2.530.0%1st Place
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12.21San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
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14.27Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.500.0%1st Place
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13.92University of California at Los Angeles-2.350.0%1st Place
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13.84Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.340.0%1st Place
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15.04University of California at San Diego-2.680.0%1st Place
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12.56University of California at San Diego-2.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Winsor | 35.0% | 25.9% | 16.6% | 10.7% | 6.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Zemke | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 19.6% | 18.1% | 17.0% | 14.7% | 12.4% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Powers | 1.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Gignac | 3.8% | 4.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kisling | 11.6% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikita Swatek | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vivin Vinil | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zack Taylor | 6.6% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Declan Dury | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Walden Hillegass | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| Deven Douglas | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| Declan Dury | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Pearson | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 13.7% | 14.4% | 0.0% |
| Tegan Smith | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Rosenbaum | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 17.0% | 0.0% |
| John Gallagher | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 0.0% |
| Colin Thompson | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 11.3% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Weil | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 21.9% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Hickey | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.