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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Los Angeles1.06+2.16vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.27+0.86vs Predicted
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3San Diego State University-0.29+3.45vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz-0.46+2.89vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.49-0.55vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine-0.66+1.41vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-0.07-1.25vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.13+4.69vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-1.95+2.67vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-0.90-1.90vs Predicted
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11San Diego State University-1.80+0.30vs Predicted
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12California State University Channel Islands-1.97+0.22vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-2.53+0.55vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-2.02-1.90vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.34-1.99vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-2.35-2.86vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-4.32+0.75vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-2.68-3.80vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.50-5.70vs Predicted
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20California State University Channel Islands-1.97-7.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.16University of California at Los Angeles1.060.2%1st Place
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2.86University of Southern California1.270.3%1st Place
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6.45San Diego State University-0.290.1%1st Place
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6.89University of California at Santa Cruz-0.460.0%1st Place
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4.45Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.490.1%1st Place
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7.41University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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5.75University of California at San Diego-0.070.1%1st Place
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12.69Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.130.0%1st Place
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11.67University of California at Los Angeles-1.950.0%1st Place
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8.1Arizona State University-0.900.0%1st Place
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11.3San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
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12.22California State University Channel Islands-1.970.0%1st Place
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13.55Arizona State University-2.530.0%1st Place
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12.1University of California at San Diego-2.020.0%1st Place
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13.01Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.340.0%1st Place
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13.14University of California at Los Angeles-2.350.0%1st Place
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17.75University of California at Los Angeles-4.320.0%1st Place
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14.2University of California at San Diego-2.680.0%1st Place
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13.3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.500.0%1st Place
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12.22California State University Channel Islands-1.970.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marianna Shand | 23.5% | 21.9% | 19.3% | 12.4% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Diya Correa | 29.3% | 21.5% | 18.2% | 13.5% | 8.5% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Gignac | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Zemke | 4.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 12.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kisling | 10.9% | 14.4% | 14.9% | 14.4% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikita Swatek | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Vivin Vinil | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Walden Hillegass | 0.8% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Deven Douglas | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Powers | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tegan Smith | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Declan Dury | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Pearson | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Hickey | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Colin Thompson | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| John Gallagher | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Fadia Nitrosso | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 9.9% | 68.2% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Weil | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 17.7% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| Alex Rosenbaum | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 4.6% | 0.0% |
| Declan Dury | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.