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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.11+4.98vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.03+4.30vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.68+4.51vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.93+2.80vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.81+2.10vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.50+2.19vs Predicted
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7University of Miami3.25-1.21vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46+0.25vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.65-1.42vs Predicted
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10Drexel University0.72+3.10vs Predicted
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11Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-1.35vs Predicted
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12Tufts University3.52-7.07vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.68-5.53vs Predicted
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14Columbia University2.43-5.70vs Predicted
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15U. S. Military Academy-0.15-0.41vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.03-1.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.98Dartmouth College3.110.1%1st Place
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6.3Brown University3.030.1%1st Place
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7.51University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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6.8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.930.1%1st Place
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7.1Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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8.19Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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5.79University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
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8.25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.0%1st Place
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7.58SUNY Maritime College2.650.1%1st Place
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13.1Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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9.65Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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4.93Tufts University3.520.2%1st Place
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7.47U. S. Naval Academy2.680.1%1st Place
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8.3Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
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14.59U. S. Military Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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14.47Princeton University-0.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo McClatchy | 9.9% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cecilia Strombeck | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Arielle DeLisser | 6.8% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| James Rohman | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| William Howard | 12.3% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Dan Crouch Crouch | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Jason Sinclair | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 29.7% | 26.1% | 12.9% |
| Christian Geary | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 17.0% | 11.0% | 4.5% | 0.5% |
| Willem Sandberg | 15.2% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Timmins | 5.2% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Irene Jacqz | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 6.1% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Phillip Weigand | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 11.9% | 29.1% | 46.1% |
| Elizabeth Smith | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 13.6% | 30.2% | 40.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.