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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.81+3.86vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.79+6.47vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.62+2.41vs Predicted
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4The Citadel1.11+6.83vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.77+3.29vs Predicted
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6Boston University1.44+3.75vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+1.52vs Predicted
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8Harvard University0.65+4.63vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.07-1.87vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College0.70+2.76vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.52-1.50vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.90+0.15vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.06-2.01vs Predicted
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14Brown University2.29-7.79vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.12+0.11vs Predicted
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16Princeton University2.35-9.74vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05-5.64vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University1.13-7.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.86Bowdoin College2.810.2%1st Place
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8.47Northeastern University1.790.0%1st Place
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5.41Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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10.83The Citadel1.110.0%1st Place
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8.29Tufts University1.770.1%1st Place
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9.75Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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8.52Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.1%1st Place
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12.63Harvard University0.650.0%1st Place
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7.13University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
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12.76Connecticut College0.700.0%1st Place
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9.5Northeastern University1.520.1%1st Place
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12.15University of Vermont0.900.0%1st Place
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10.99U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.060.0%1st Place
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6.21Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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15.11SUNY Stony Brook-0.120.0%1st Place
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6.26Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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11.36Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.0%1st Place
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10.78Northwestern University1.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 15.1% | 14.9% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Everett Nash | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Trevor Davis | 12.9% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Walters | 3.8% | 1.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 5.0% |
| Jack Flores | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.0% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Paul Kuechler | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 13.9% | 13.3% |
| Ben Rosenberg | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Powers | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 14.7% | 12.2% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| Luke Quine | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 7.9% |
| Aidan Brown | 2.6% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 10.5% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kristin Hess | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 15.5% | 39.9% |
| Connor Mraz | 9.9% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Kai Ponting | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 5.8% |
| Thomas Quinn | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 4.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.