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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.29+5.62vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.62+3.37vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College0.70+9.80vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+7.05vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.06+6.06vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont0.90+5.80vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.79+1.28vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.77+0.34vs Predicted
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9Harvard University0.65+3.78vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.81-5.15vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.52-1.42vs Predicted
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12Princeton University2.35-5.46vs Predicted
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13The Citadel1.11-2.17vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.44-4.65vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.12+0.07vs Predicted
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16Northwestern University1.13-5.01vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73-8.32vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island2.07-11.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.62Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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5.37Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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12.8Connecticut College0.700.0%1st Place
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11.05Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.0%1st Place
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11.06U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.060.0%1st Place
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11.8University of Vermont0.900.0%1st Place
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8.28Northeastern University1.790.1%1st Place
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8.34Tufts University1.770.1%1st Place
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12.78Harvard University0.650.0%1st Place
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4.85Bowdoin College2.810.2%1st Place
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9.58Northeastern University1.520.0%1st Place
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6.54Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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10.83The Citadel1.110.0%1st Place
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9.35Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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15.07SUNY Stony Brook-0.120.0%1st Place
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10.99Northwestern University1.130.0%1st Place
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8.68Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.1%1st Place
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6.99University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leyton Borcherding | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Davis | 11.7% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Powers | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 14.3% | 11.9% |
| Kai Ponting | 2.8% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 5.6% |
| Aidan Brown | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 4.8% |
| Luke Quine | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.9% |
| Everett Nash | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Jack Flores | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Paul Kuechler | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 12.8% | 12.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 15.8% | 12.1% | 13.4% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 2.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Gregory Walters | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 4.6% |
| Tiare Sierra | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 1.5% |
| Kristin Hess | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 13.9% | 40.8% |
| Thomas Quinn | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Ben Rosenberg | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.