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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.81+3.87vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+6.68vs Predicted
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3SUNY Stony Brook-0.12+12.25vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.62+1.21vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.79+3.27vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.06+5.18vs Predicted
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7Princeton University2.35-0.81vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.07-0.88vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College0.70+3.56vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.52-0.44vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University1.13+0.03vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.44-1.95vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05-1.90vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.90-2.51vs Predicted
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15Tufts University1.77-6.71vs Predicted
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16Brown University2.29-9.51vs Predicted
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17Harvard University0.65-4.14vs Predicted
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18The Citadel1.11-7.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.87Bowdoin College2.810.2%1st Place
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8.68Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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15.25SUNY Stony Brook-0.120.0%1st Place
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5.21Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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8.27Northeastern University1.790.1%1st Place
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11.18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.060.0%1st Place
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6.19Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.12University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
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12.56Connecticut College0.700.0%1st Place
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9.56Northeastern University1.520.1%1st Place
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11.03Northwestern University1.130.0%1st Place
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10.05Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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11.1Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.0%1st Place
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11.49University of Vermont0.900.0%1st Place
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8.29Tufts University1.770.1%1st Place
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6.49Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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12.86Harvard University0.650.0%1st Place
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10.82The Citadel1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 15.4% | 14.5% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Kristin Hess | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 9.1% | 13.6% | 44.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 13.6% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Everett Nash | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Aidan Brown | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 5.2% |
| Connor Mraz | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Ben Rosenberg | 7.5% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Andrew Powers | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 10.7% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 1.4% |
| Thomas Quinn | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 2.7% |
| Kai Ponting | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 4.8% |
| Luke Quine | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 6.0% |
| Jack Flores | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Paul Kuechler | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 14.5% | 12.7% |
| Gregory Walters | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.