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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
5.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Stony Brook-0.12+14.13vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.07+5.36vs Predicted
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3Princeton University2.35+3.33vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont0.90+7.66vs Predicted
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5Boston University1.44+4.62vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+2.57vs Predicted
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7Harvard University0.65+5.72vs Predicted
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8The Citadel1.11+2.87vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College0.70+3.54vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.52-0.39vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.79-2.55vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05-0.44vs Predicted
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13Brown University2.29-6.67vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.77-5.91vs Predicted
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15Tufts University2.62-9.77vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College2.81-11.23vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.13-5.89vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.06-6.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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15.13SUNY Stony Brook-0.120.0%1st Place
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7.36University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
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6.33Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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11.66University of Vermont0.900.0%1st Place
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9.62Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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8.57Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.1%1st Place
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12.72Harvard University0.650.0%1st Place
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10.87The Citadel1.110.0%1st Place
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12.54Connecticut College0.700.0%1st Place
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9.61Northeastern University1.520.0%1st Place
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8.45Northeastern University1.790.1%1st Place
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11.56Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.0%1st Place
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6.33Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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8.09Tufts University1.770.1%1st Place
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5.23Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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4.77Bowdoin College2.810.2%1st Place
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11.11Northwestern University1.130.0%1st Place
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11.05U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristin Hess | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 12.5% | 43.7% |
| Ben Rosenberg | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Quine | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 7.5% |
| Tiare Sierra | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.4% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Paul Kuechler | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 15.2% | 11.4% |
| Gregory Walters | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 4.8% |
| Andrew Powers | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 10.3% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| Everett Nash | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Kai Ponting | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 6.5% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Flores | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Trevor Davis | 13.9% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 15.7% | 14.8% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Quinn | 3.8% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 4.8% |
| Aidan Brown | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.