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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northeastern University2.00+5.41vs Predicted
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2Boston University1.25+7.28vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University2.12+2.92vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.90+2.48vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.05+1.07vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+1.76vs Predicted
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7Princeton University0.34+5.44vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.73-0.86vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College0.66+2.26vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.34-4.71vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.61-3.26vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College1.25-2.58vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-0.88vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.81-3.52vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.85+0.84vs Predicted
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16Harvard University0.34-3.43vs Predicted
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17The Citadel0.11-3.64vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University0.58-6.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.41Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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9.28Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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5.92Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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6.48Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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6.07Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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7.76U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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12.44Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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7.14Brown University1.730.1%1st Place
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11.26Connecticut College0.660.0%1st Place
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5.29University of Rhode Island2.340.1%1st Place
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7.74Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.610.1%1st Place
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9.42Bowdoin College1.250.0%1st Place
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12.12Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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10.48University of Vermont0.810.0%1st Place
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15.84SUNY Stony Brook-0.850.0%1st Place
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12.57Harvard University0.340.0%1st Place
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13.36The Citadel0.110.0%1st Place
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11.43Northwestern University0.580.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Winkelman | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Will Priebe | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 9.6% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 11.1% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Jasper Waldman | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 7.6% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Liam Gronda | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 3.3% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 13.7% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Scherer | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Christine Reimer | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Max Case | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 7.0% |
| Charles Morris | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 2.7% |
| Gerrit Bittmann | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 15.1% | 49.8% |
| Matthew Cabot | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 9.2% |
| Lewis Bragg | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 16.3% | 14.3% |
| Anton de Lesseps | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 3.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.