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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.90+5.77vs Predicted
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2Boston University1.25+7.27vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.05+3.17vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.34+1.04vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College0.66+6.20vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+1.84vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.61+0.60vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University2.12-2.19vs Predicted
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9Princeton University0.34+3.50vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.73-2.50vs Predicted
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11Harvard University0.34+1.60vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.00-5.48vs Predicted
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13The Citadel0.11+0.09vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University0.58-2.64vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.81-4.31vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-3.68vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-0.85-1.10vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College1.25-9.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.77Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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9.27Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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6.17Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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5.04University of Rhode Island2.340.1%1st Place
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11.2Connecticut College0.660.0%1st Place
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7.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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7.6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.610.1%1st Place
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5.81Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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12.5Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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7.5Brown University1.730.1%1st Place
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12.6Harvard University0.340.0%1st Place
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6.52Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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13.09The Citadel0.110.0%1st Place
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11.36Northwestern University0.580.0%1st Place
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10.69University of Vermont0.810.0%1st Place
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12.32Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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15.9SUNY Stony Brook-0.850.0%1st Place
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8.82Bowdoin College1.250.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Smith | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| John Eastman | 9.5% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 14.8% | 14.4% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Liam Gronda | 2.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 4.3% |
| Lars Osell | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Scherer | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Will Priebe | 10.8% | 12.9% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 13.5% | 6.6% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Cabot | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 9.4% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 8.9% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lewis Bragg | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 15.0% | 12.8% |
| Anton de Lesseps | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 3.5% |
| Charles Morris | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 1.8% |
| Max Case | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 8.2% |
| Gerrit Bittmann | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 51.8% |
| Christine Reimer | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.