Race 1A

riley-cup

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Enzo Menditto 17.2% 14.4% 14.8% 12.3% 11.1% 9.6% 7.0% 5.6% 3.6% 2.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Henry Allgeier 14.1% 13.7% 13.8% 11.2% 11.7% 9.7% 8.6% 6.9% 4.3% 3.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
Tyler Wood 10.3% 10.8% 8.8% 10.1% 9.6% 9.3% 8.8% 9.4% 9.0% 6.3% 3.4% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Diego Escobar 12.2% 13.0% 11.6% 12.0% 12.0% 10.0% 9.2% 6.7% 5.6% 4.0% 2.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Stefano Palamara 2.2% 1.9% 2.2% 2.2% 3.1% 3.3% 4.2% 5.0% 5.2% 8.6% 11.9% 14.8% 15.7% 13.3% 6.1%
Landon Cormie 7.8% 8.7% 9.4% 8.2% 7.8% 8.6% 10.9% 9.6% 9.3% 7.6% 5.9% 3.5% 2.1% 0.4% 0.2%
Diogo Silva 7.4% 8.2% 7.5% 9.9% 9.2% 9.1% 10.0% 9.4% 8.3% 8.2% 6.2% 3.6% 2.1% 0.9% 0.0%
Joshua Bendura 4.2% 3.6% 3.9% 4.9% 4.2% 6.3% 6.7% 8.1% 8.9% 10.2% 11.5% 13.0% 8.5% 4.9% 1.2%
Owen MacWilliams 11.6% 11.6% 12.0% 11.1% 10.3% 10.7% 8.7% 8.1% 6.7% 3.9% 3.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Zachary Bender 3.5% 4.0% 4.3% 5.2% 5.5% 5.7% 6.7% 8.5% 10.4% 11.5% 11.8% 9.7% 8.9% 3.2% 0.9%
Charlotte Stillman 1.1% 1.8% 1.0% 1.8% 2.0% 2.8% 3.1% 3.5% 3.6% 5.9% 7.5% 11.7% 15.7% 20.8% 17.5%
Olivia Gilmore 2.6% 2.2% 3.5% 3.8% 5.1% 4.0% 5.5% 7.0% 9.0% 8.8% 11.6% 12.8% 11.6% 8.7% 3.8%
Raam Fox 4.2% 4.5% 5.2% 5.6% 6.0% 8.2% 6.9% 8.1% 10.2% 12.0% 11.6% 8.2% 5.9% 2.6% 0.7%
Brooke Lorson 0.6% 1.1% 0.9% 1.2% 1.6% 1.6% 2.1% 2.5% 2.7% 4.1% 5.3% 8.6% 14.8% 23.8% 29.0%
Brian Zagalsky 0.7% 0.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.8% 1.2% 1.6% 1.9% 2.9% 2.9% 5.4% 7.3% 12.2% 20.8% 40.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.