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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.61+6.82vs Predicted
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2Boston University1.25+7.26vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University2.12+2.94vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+3.66vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.05+1.05vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.90+0.62vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University2.00-0.79vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.69-0.71vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.34-3.93vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College1.25-0.67vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.81-0.12vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.66-0.34vs Predicted
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13The Citadel0.11+0.04vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-2.09vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University0.58-3.42vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.34-3.46vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-0.85-1.14vs Predicted
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18Harvard University0.34-5.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.82Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.610.1%1st Place
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9.26Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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5.94Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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7.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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6.05Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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6.62Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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6.21Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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7.29Brown University1.690.1%1st Place
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5.07University of Rhode Island2.340.1%1st Place
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9.33Bowdoin College1.250.1%1st Place
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10.88University of Vermont0.810.0%1st Place
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11.66Connecticut College0.660.0%1st Place
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13.04The Citadel0.110.0%1st Place
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11.91Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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11.58Northwestern University0.580.0%1st Place
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12.54Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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15.86SUNY Stony Brook-0.850.0%1st Place
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12.28Harvard University0.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Scherer | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 3.2% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Will Priebe | 10.5% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| John Eastman | 10.1% | 13.8% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 9.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 10.1% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Macken | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 13.4% | 14.6% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christine Reimer | 5.5% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Charles Morris | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 3.4% |
| Liam Gronda | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 5.0% |
| Lewis Bragg | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 15.0% | 12.8% |
| Max Case | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 5.8% |
| Anton de Lesseps | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 4.4% |
| Jasper Waldman | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 8.7% |
| Gerrit Bittmann | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 8.3% | 14.8% | 51.4% |
| Matthew Cabot | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 7.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.