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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.05+5.25vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College0.66+9.54vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.34+2.21vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+3.69vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University2.12+0.80vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University2.00+0.22vs Predicted
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7Brown University1.69+0.35vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.25+0.96vs Predicted
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9The Citadel0.11+4.24vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.61-2.13vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College1.25-1.83vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+0.56vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.81-2.42vs Predicted
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14Harvard University0.34-1.83vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.34-2.57vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook-0.85-0.15vs Predicted
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17Tufts University1.90-10.26vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University0.58-6.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.25Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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11.54Connecticut College0.660.0%1st Place
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5.21University of Rhode Island2.340.1%1st Place
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7.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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5.8Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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6.22Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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7.35Brown University1.690.1%1st Place
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8.96Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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13.24The Citadel0.110.0%1st Place
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7.87Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.610.1%1st Place
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9.17Bowdoin College1.250.1%1st Place
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12.56Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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10.58University of Vermont0.810.0%1st Place
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12.17Harvard University0.340.0%1st Place
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12.43Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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15.85SUNY Stony Brook-0.850.0%1st Place
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6.74Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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11.38Northwestern University0.580.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Eastman | 8.9% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Liam Gronda | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 4.0% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 12.9% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Will Priebe | 12.1% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Connor Macken | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Lewis Bragg | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 13.8% | 16.8% | 11.7% |
| Emily Scherer | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Christine Reimer | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Max Case | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 14.0% | 9.6% |
| Charles Morris | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% |
| Matthew Cabot | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 7.3% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.9% | 1.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 9.4% |
| Gerrit Bittmann | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 15.1% | 49.3% |
| Shea Smith | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Anton de Lesseps | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 4.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.