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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston University1.25+7.51vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.61+5.25vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.34+2.00vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.05+1.98vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College0.66+5.65vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+1.77vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University2.12-1.35vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.69-0.97vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College1.25-0.11vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.90-3.70vs Predicted
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11Princeton University0.34+0.99vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.00-5.97vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.81-2.56vs Predicted
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14The Citadel0.11-1.23vs Predicted
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15Harvard University0.34-3.12vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-4.21vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-0.85-1.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.51Boston University1.250.1%1st Place
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7.25Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.610.1%1st Place
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5.0University of Rhode Island2.340.1%1st Place
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5.98Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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10.65Connecticut College0.660.0%1st Place
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7.77U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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5.65Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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7.03Brown University1.690.1%1st Place
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8.89Bowdoin College1.250.0%1st Place
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6.3Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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11.99Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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6.03Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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10.44University of Vermont0.810.0%1st Place
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12.77The Citadel0.110.0%1st Place
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11.88Harvard University0.340.0%1st Place
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11.79Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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15.08SUNY Stony Brook-0.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Mendenhall | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Emily Scherer | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 14.3% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 11.0% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Liam Gronda | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 4.6% |
| Lars Osell | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Will Priebe | 10.7% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Connor Macken | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Christine Reimer | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Shea Smith | 9.2% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Jasper Waldman | 2.1% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 14.5% | 14.7% | 8.5% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 10.9% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Charles Morris | 2.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 3.7% |
| Lewis Bragg | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 12.7% | 14.5% | 17.4% | 14.0% |
| Matthew Cabot | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 14.1% | 15.1% | 7.8% |
| Max Case | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 8.1% |
| Gerrit Bittmann | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 15.5% | 51.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.