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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.90+5.21vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College0.66+8.76vs Predicted
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3Boston University1.25+5.72vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+7.73vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.05+0.72vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.34-0.87vs Predicted
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7Brown University1.69+0.14vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University2.00-2.10vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College1.25-0.01vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.81+0.30vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University2.12-5.20vs Predicted
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12The Citadel0.11+0.56vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.61-5.51vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.34-1.96vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.85-0.02vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-8.46vs Predicted
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17Harvard University0.34-4.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.21Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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10.76Connecticut College0.660.0%1st Place
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8.72Boston University1.250.1%1st Place
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11.73Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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5.72Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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5.13University of Rhode Island2.340.1%1st Place
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7.14Brown University1.690.1%1st Place
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5.9Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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8.99Bowdoin College1.250.0%1st Place
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10.3University of Vermont0.810.0%1st Place
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5.8Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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12.56The Citadel0.110.0%1st Place
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7.49Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.610.1%1st Place
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12.04Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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14.98SUNY Stony Brook-0.850.0%1st Place
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7.54U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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12.01Harvard University0.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Smith | 10.5% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Liam Gronda | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 3.8% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Max Case | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 14.7% | 12.1% | 8.2% |
| John Eastman | 11.5% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 12.4% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Macken | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 10.7% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christine Reimer | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Charles Morris | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 2.8% |
| Will Priebe | 12.2% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Lewis Bragg | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 18.7% | 13.2% |
| Emily Scherer | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 14.7% | 14.7% | 8.4% |
| Gerrit Bittmann | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 14.7% | 51.1% |
| Lars Osell | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Matthew Cabot | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 14.2% | 13.6% | 9.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.