← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.61+6.22vs Predicted
-
2Boston University1.25+6.69vs Predicted
-
3Tufts University1.90+3.39vs Predicted
-
4Harvard University0.34+7.90vs Predicted
-
5Tufts University2.05+0.80vs Predicted
-
6Brown University1.69+1.30vs Predicted
-
7Northeastern University2.00-0.96vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-0.49vs Predicted
-
9Northeastern University2.12-3.17vs Predicted
-
10University of Rhode Island2.34-5.07vs Predicted
-
11Bowdoin College1.25-2.17vs Predicted
-
12Connecticut College0.66-1.17vs Predicted
-
13The Citadel0.11-0.31vs Predicted
-
14Princeton University0.34-1.93vs Predicted
-
15SUNY Stony Brook-0.85-0.04vs Predicted
-
16University of Vermont0.81-5.71vs Predicted
-
17Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-5.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.22Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.610.1%1st Place
-
8.69Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
-
6.39Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
-
11.9Harvard University0.340.0%1st Place
-
5.8Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
-
7.3Brown University1.690.1%1st Place
-
6.04Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
-
7.51U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
-
5.83Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
-
4.93University of Rhode Island2.340.1%1st Place
-
8.83Bowdoin College1.250.1%1st Place
-
10.83Connecticut College0.660.0%1st Place
-
12.69The Citadel0.110.0%1st Place
-
12.07Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
-
14.96SUNY Stony Brook-0.850.0%1st Place
-
10.29University of Vermont0.810.0%1st Place
-
11.71Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Scherer | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Shea Smith | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Cabot | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 13.4% | 14.4% | 13.4% | 8.2% |
| John Eastman | 11.0% | 12.5% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Connor Macken | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Will Priebe | 9.6% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 13.8% | 14.4% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Christine Reimer | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Liam Gronda | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 4.1% |
| Lewis Bragg | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 13.6% | 17.4% | 14.4% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.3% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 14.6% | 9.8% |
| Gerrit Bittmann | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 16.0% | 50.5% |
| Charles Morris | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 2.8% |
| Max Case | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 8.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.