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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.44+5.22vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.20+2.25vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University1.97+1.66vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.25+2.19vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.52+0.68vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.16-1.89vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.90+0.23vs Predicted
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8Virginia Tech0.67+0.15vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University0.26+0.21vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland0.92-2.65vs Predicted
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11Hampton University0.58-3.50vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University-0.52-0.61vs Predicted
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13University of Maryland-1.87+0.69vs Predicted
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14American University-0.66-2.64vs Predicted
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15William and Mary-1.40-2.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.22George Washington University1.447.8%1st Place
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4.25Georgetown University2.2017.0%1st Place
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4.66Georgetown University1.9714.1%1st Place
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6.19U. S. Naval Academy1.258.6%1st Place
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5.68Old Dominion University1.529.5%1st Place
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4.11U. S. Naval Academy2.1617.2%1st Place
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7.23St. Mary's College of Maryland0.905.1%1st Place
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8.15Virginia Tech0.674.6%1st Place
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9.21Old Dominion University0.262.2%1st Place
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7.35St. Mary's College of Maryland0.925.8%1st Place
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7.5Hampton University0.585.1%1st Place
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11.39Christopher Newport University-0.521.5%1st Place
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13.69University of Maryland-1.870.3%1st Place
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11.36American University-0.660.8%1st Place
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13.0William and Mary-1.400.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Piper Holthus | 17.0% | 14.5% | 14.1% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Petersen | 14.1% | 14.3% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hugh Carty | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 17.2% | 16.1% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Kleha | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| James Lilyquist | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 0.1% |
| Ian Kissel | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 13.8% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 4.8% | 0.9% |
| Scott Opert | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Brown | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Noah Hubbard | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 15.6% | 20.8% | 20.3% | 8.5% |
| Emma Retzlaff | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 5.8% | 10.0% | 20.6% | 52.9% |
| James Cottage | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 15.4% | 22.0% | 18.4% | 7.6% |
| Harrison Rohne | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 8.8% | 15.2% | 29.8% | 29.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.