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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Amherst College2.01+4.61vs Predicted
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2Brandeis University1.35+5.16vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University2.84+0.85vs Predicted
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4Wesleyan University2.71+0.01vs Predicted
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5Bates College2.26+0.08vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.16-0.74vs Predicted
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8University of Connecticut2.51-3.50vs Predicted
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9Middlebury College1.85-3.01vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire1.81-3.91vs Predicted
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12Maine Maritime Academy1.21-4.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.61Amherst College2.010.1%1st Place
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7.16Brandeis University1.350.0%1st Place
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3.85Northeastern University2.840.2%1st Place
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4.01Wesleyan University2.710.2%1st Place
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5.08Bates College2.260.1%1st Place
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5.26Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.160.1%1st Place
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4.5University of Connecticut2.510.1%1st Place
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5.99Middlebury College1.850.1%1st Place
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6.09University of New Hampshire1.810.1%1st Place
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7.46Maine Maritime Academy1.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Black | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 6.9% |
| Andrea Verdeja | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 18.5% | 25.8% |
| Conor Lodge | 18.1% | 16.7% | 15.0% | 12.7% | 14.2% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| John McGlynn | 16.5% | 16.3% | 14.7% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| David Pierce | 11.1% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 4.2% |
| Michael Reney | 11.6% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% |
| Sean Andrew | 12.1% | 13.7% | 14.8% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 2.4% |
| Nicholas Dragone | 6.4% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 10.3% |
| Neal Drake | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 13.8% | 11.0% |
| Matthew Butcka | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 17.8% | 31.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.