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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.16+3.01vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University1.97+2.64vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy1.25+3.33vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.20+0.15vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University0.26+4.37vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.90+1.18vs Predicted
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7Virginia Tech0.67+1.21vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.44-1.76vs Predicted
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9Hampton University0.58-1.70vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.52-4.36vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland0.92-3.65vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University-0.52-0.59vs Predicted
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13American University-0.66-1.57vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-1.40-1.05vs Predicted
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15University of Maryland-1.87-1.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.01U. S. Naval Academy2.1618.9%1st Place
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4.64Georgetown University1.9714.9%1st Place
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6.33U. S. Naval Academy1.256.9%1st Place
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4.15Georgetown University2.2017.8%1st Place
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9.37Old Dominion University0.262.5%1st Place
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7.18St. Mary's College of Maryland0.905.0%1st Place
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8.21Virginia Tech0.674.3%1st Place
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6.24George Washington University1.447.6%1st Place
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7.3Hampton University0.584.3%1st Place
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5.64Old Dominion University1.529.2%1st Place
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7.35St. Mary's College of Maryland0.925.3%1st Place
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11.41Christopher Newport University-0.521.2%1st Place
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11.43American University-0.661.2%1st Place
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12.95William and Mary-1.400.4%1st Place
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13.78University of Maryland-1.870.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Reinecke | 18.9% | 17.5% | 13.7% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Petersen | 14.9% | 13.8% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hugh Carty | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Piper Holthus | 17.8% | 15.8% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Kissel | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 14.0% | 15.1% | 11.1% | 5.5% | 1.2% |
| Max Kleha | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| James Lilyquist | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Brown | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Marina Conde | 9.2% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Scott Opert | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Noah Hubbard | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 15.2% | 22.7% | 19.3% | 8.2% |
| James Cottage | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 15.7% | 20.7% | 20.4% | 7.5% |
| Harrison Rohne | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 16.4% | 28.4% | 28.6% |
| Emma Retzlaff | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 10.8% | 20.9% | 53.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.