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📊 Prediction Accuracy
73.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy1.25+5.29vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.20+2.24vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.44+3.06vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.16+0.01vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University1.97-0.31vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.90+1.30vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.92+0.44vs Predicted
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8Hampton University0.58-0.75vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech0.67-0.92vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University0.26-0.71vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University-0.52+0.59vs Predicted
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12American University-0.66-0.57vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.52-7.33vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-1.40-1.03vs Predicted
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15University of Maryland-1.87-1.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.29U. S. Naval Academy1.258.0%1st Place
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4.24Georgetown University2.2016.9%1st Place
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6.06George Washington University1.447.6%1st Place
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4.01U. S. Naval Academy2.1618.1%1st Place
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4.69Georgetown University1.9714.0%1st Place
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7.3St. Mary's College of Maryland0.905.9%1st Place
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7.44St. Mary's College of Maryland0.925.1%1st Place
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7.25Hampton University0.585.3%1st Place
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8.08Virginia Tech0.674.5%1st Place
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9.29Old Dominion University0.262.8%1st Place
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11.59Christopher Newport University-0.520.9%1st Place
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11.43American University-0.661.0%1st Place
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5.67Old Dominion University1.529.6%1st Place
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12.97William and Mary-1.400.3%1st Place
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13.71University of Maryland-1.870.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugh Carty | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 16.9% | 14.3% | 15.2% | 13.4% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 7.6% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 18.1% | 17.2% | 14.6% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Petersen | 14.0% | 14.2% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Kleha | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Scott Opert | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Tyler Brown | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| James Lilyquist | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Ian Kissel | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 13.9% | 15.6% | 10.3% | 5.2% | 0.9% |
| Noah Hubbard | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 14.5% | 21.8% | 19.5% | 9.8% |
| James Cottage | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 24.0% | 17.3% | 7.8% |
| Marina Conde | 9.6% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Harrison Rohne | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 8.6% | 14.8% | 30.4% | 28.5% |
| Emma Retzlaff | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 5.9% | 10.8% | 20.9% | 51.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.