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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.44+5.15vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy1.25+4.40vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University1.97+1.71vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland0.90+3.06vs Predicted
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5Virginia Tech0.67+3.06vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.52-0.32vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.20-2.81vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.92-0.51vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.16-5.01vs Predicted
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10Hampton University0.58-2.71vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University-0.52+0.61vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University0.26-2.67vs Predicted
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13American University-0.66-1.67vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-1.40-0.96vs Predicted
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15University of Maryland-1.87-1.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.15George Washington University1.447.8%1st Place
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6.4U. S. Naval Academy1.257.2%1st Place
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4.71Georgetown University1.9713.1%1st Place
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7.06St. Mary's College of Maryland0.905.7%1st Place
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8.06Virginia Tech0.674.3%1st Place
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5.68Old Dominion University1.5211.1%1st Place
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4.19Georgetown University2.2017.0%1st Place
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7.49St. Mary's College of Maryland0.925.2%1st Place
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3.99U. S. Naval Academy2.1619.1%1st Place
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7.29Hampton University0.585.1%1st Place
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11.61Christopher Newport University-0.520.7%1st Place
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9.33Old Dominion University0.262.5%1st Place
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11.33American University-0.660.7%1st Place
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13.04William and Mary-1.400.2%1st Place
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13.67University of Maryland-1.870.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 7.8% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Hugh Carty | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Jeffrey Petersen | 13.1% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Max Kleha | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| James Lilyquist | 4.3% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Marina Conde | 11.1% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 17.0% | 15.5% | 14.6% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Opert | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 19.1% | 16.9% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Brown | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Noah Hubbard | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 16.2% | 23.1% | 19.9% | 8.1% |
| Ian Kissel | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 16.0% | 11.5% | 4.9% | 1.1% |
| James Cottage | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 16.0% | 21.6% | 18.6% | 7.2% |
| Harrison Rohne | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 8.3% | 15.3% | 30.3% | 29.2% |
| Emma Retzlaff | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 8.7% | 21.0% | 53.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.