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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University2.54+2.30vs Predicted
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2University of North Texas1.72+3.39vs Predicted
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3Eckerd College1.74+2.38vs Predicted
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4University of Maryland1.00+3.64vs Predicted
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5University of Texas0.65+3.82vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University1.65-0.36vs Predicted
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7University of South Carolina0.72+1.90vs Predicted
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8Florida Institute of Technology0.78+0.27vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University1.11-1.81vs Predicted
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10Clemson University-0.58+3.06vs Predicted
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11North Carolina State University1.54-5.01vs Predicted
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12University of Maryland/Baltimore County-1.19+3.02vs Predicted
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13Embry-Riddle University-0.41-0.30vs Predicted
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14Georgia Institute of Technology0.05-3.05vs Predicted
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15Duke University-0.67-1.73vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia0.06-5.16vs Predicted
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17The Citadel-1.11-2.48vs Predicted
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18University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.75-1.76vs Predicted
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19University of Georgia-2.30-1.63vs Predicted
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20William and Mary-4.06-0.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.3North Carolina State University2.540.3%1st Place
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5.39University of North Texas1.720.1%1st Place
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5.38Eckerd College1.740.1%1st Place
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7.64University of Maryland1.000.1%1st Place
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8.82University of Texas0.650.0%1st Place
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5.64Jacksonville University1.650.1%1st Place
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8.9University of South Carolina0.720.0%1st Place
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8.27Florida Institute of Technology0.780.0%1st Place
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7.19Christopher Newport University1.110.1%1st Place
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13.06Clemson University-0.580.0%1st Place
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5.99North Carolina State University1.540.1%1st Place
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15.02University of Maryland/Baltimore County-1.190.0%1st Place
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12.7Embry-Riddle University-0.410.0%1st Place
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10.95Georgia Institute of Technology0.050.0%1st Place
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13.27Duke University-0.670.0%1st Place
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10.84University of Virginia0.060.0%1st Place
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14.52The Citadel-1.110.0%1st Place
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16.24University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.750.0%1st Place
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17.37University of Georgia-2.300.0%1st Place
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19.51William and Mary-4.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Harris | 26.2% | 20.3% | 16.9% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dutch Byerly | 10.9% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eden Nykamp | 11.6% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Bisson | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Karina Bertelsmann | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Allen | 9.8% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Street | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Smucker | 3.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Hodges | 5.5% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Bialek | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 0.2% |
| Jacob Usher | 10.0% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Vance | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 18.3% | 15.6% | 11.3% | 1.6% |
| Zechariah Frantz | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Cole Woerner | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Aramendia | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Connor Lothrop | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas DeConto | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 14.7% | 15.5% | 7.0% | 1.0% |
| Nevin Williams | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 14.4% | 20.5% | 24.2% | 4.2% |
| Katie Kellam | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 17.5% | 40.1% | 10.8% |
| Gabrielle Buffaloe | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 8.4% | 82.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.