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📊 Prediction Accuracy
13.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.44+5.29vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University1.97+2.66vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.52+2.66vs Predicted
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4Virginia Tech0.67+4.13vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University-0.52+6.54vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.26+3.29vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.16-2.94vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.20-3.79vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy1.25-2.78vs Predicted
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10Hampton University0.58-2.63vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland0.92-3.59vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.90-4.80vs Predicted
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13American University-0.66-1.64vs Predicted
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14University of Maryland-1.87-0.31vs Predicted
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15William and Mary-1.40-2.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.29George Washington University1.447.6%1st Place
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4.66Georgetown University1.9715.1%1st Place
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5.66Old Dominion University1.528.9%1st Place
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8.13Virginia Tech0.673.8%1st Place
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11.54Christopher Newport University-0.520.9%1st Place
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9.29Old Dominion University0.262.6%1st Place
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4.06U. S. Naval Academy2.1617.5%1st Place
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4.21Georgetown University2.2017.4%1st Place
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6.22U. S. Naval Academy1.257.4%1st Place
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7.37Hampton University0.585.7%1st Place
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7.41St. Mary's College of Maryland0.925.3%1st Place
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7.2St. Mary's College of Maryland0.905.2%1st Place
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11.36American University-0.661.5%1st Place
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13.69University of Maryland-1.870.1%1st Place
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12.92William and Mary-1.400.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jeffrey Petersen | 15.1% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 8.9% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Noah Hubbard | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 15.4% | 22.5% | 19.5% | 8.8% |
| Ian Kissel | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 15.2% | 11.6% | 5.4% | 1.4% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 17.5% | 16.6% | 14.5% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 17.4% | 15.5% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hugh Carty | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Brown | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Scott Opert | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Max Kleha | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| James Cottage | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 16.4% | 20.0% | 18.9% | 8.2% |
| Emma Retzlaff | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 5.9% | 10.7% | 21.1% | 51.5% |
| Harrison Rohne | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 7.8% | 15.2% | 30.1% | 29.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.