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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz1.15+4.84vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego1.45+3.05vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles1.06+3.24vs Predicted
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4University of North Texas1.72+0.40vs Predicted
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5Purdue University0.56+2.96vs Predicted
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6University of New Hampshire1.02+0.50vs Predicted
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7Fairfield University-0.26+3.71vs Predicted
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8Bates College0.28+0.76vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.84-2.09vs Predicted
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10Marquette University-0.63+1.88vs Predicted
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11SUNY Stony Brook-0.12-0.84vs Predicted
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12Middlebury College-0.14-1.70vs Predicted
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13University of Texas0.65-5.44vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-0.29-3.33vs Predicted
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15Olin College of Engineering0.52-6.83vs Predicted
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16University of Delaware-2.07-1.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.84University of California at Santa Cruz1.150.1%1st Place
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5.05University of California at San Diego1.450.1%1st Place
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6.24University of California at Los Angeles1.060.1%1st Place
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4.4University of North Texas1.720.2%1st Place
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7.96Purdue University0.560.1%1st Place
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6.5University of New Hampshire1.020.1%1st Place
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10.71Fairfield University-0.260.0%1st Place
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8.76Bates College0.280.0%1st Place
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6.91Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.840.1%1st Place
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11.88Marquette University-0.630.0%1st Place
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10.16SUNY Stony Brook-0.120.0%1st Place
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10.3Middlebury College-0.140.0%1st Place
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7.56University of Texas0.650.1%1st Place
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10.67San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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8.17Olin College of Engineering0.520.1%1st Place
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14.88University of Delaware-2.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aitor Iriso | 10.3% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Dorn | 13.6% | 14.8% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 10.0% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Dutch Byerly | 16.1% | 17.1% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Odey Hariri | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Grace Cannon | 8.0% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Andrew White | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 13.9% | 15.2% | 5.1% |
| Jack Valentino | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 1.1% |
| Stephen Poirier | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Jenna Kozal | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 14.6% | 22.1% | 10.7% |
| Kristin Hess | 3.7% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 3.0% |
| Nicholas Leshaw | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 4.0% |
| Karina Bertelsmann | 5.5% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Casey Gignac | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 4.6% |
| James Jagielski | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Tamryn Whyte | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 9.9% | 69.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.