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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz1.15+4.92vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.06+4.27vs Predicted
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3Bates College0.28+6.05vs Predicted
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4University of North Texas1.72+0.43vs Predicted
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5University of Texas0.65+2.77vs Predicted
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6University of New Hampshire1.02+0.56vs Predicted
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7Purdue University0.56+1.15vs Predicted
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8Olin College of Engineering0.52+0.06vs Predicted
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9SUNY Stony Brook-0.12+1.39vs Predicted
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10Marquette University-0.63+2.12vs Predicted
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11Middlebury College-0.14-0.50vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego1.45-6.85vs Predicted
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14University of Delaware-0.82-1.42vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.84-8.08vs Predicted
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16Fairfield University-0.26-4.99vs Predicted
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17San Diego State University-0.29-5.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.92University of California at Santa Cruz1.150.1%1st Place
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6.27University of California at Los Angeles1.060.1%1st Place
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9.05Bates College0.280.1%1st Place
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4.43University of North Texas1.720.2%1st Place
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7.77University of Texas0.650.1%1st Place
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6.56University of New Hampshire1.020.1%1st Place
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8.15Purdue University0.560.1%1st Place
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8.06Olin College of Engineering0.520.1%1st Place
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10.39SUNY Stony Brook-0.120.0%1st Place
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12.12Marquette University-0.630.0%1st Place
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10.5Middlebury College-0.140.0%1st Place
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5.15University of California at San Diego1.450.1%1st Place
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12.58University of Delaware-0.820.0%1st Place
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6.92Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.840.1%1st Place
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11.01Fairfield University-0.260.0%1st Place
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11.12San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aitor Iriso | 9.9% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Marianna Shand | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Jack Valentino | 5.2% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 2.9% |
| Dutch Byerly | 16.4% | 15.8% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Karina Bertelsmann | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Grace Cannon | 7.9% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Odey Hariri | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| James Jagielski | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Kristin Hess | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 8.6% |
| Jenna Kozal | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 17.0% | 21.5% |
| Nicholas Leshaw | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 9.0% |
| Nicholas Dorn | 12.9% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Pearce Bragaw | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 16.4% | 29.8% |
| Stephen Poirier | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Andrew White | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 13.5% | 10.8% |
| Casey Gignac | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 12.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.