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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+5.69vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.69+2.77vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.83+4.77vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+2.12vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.38+0.63vs Predicted
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6Washington College2.11+4.47vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.91+4.19vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College3.06-1.34vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+1.65vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.63-1.39vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.68-2.72vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.91-0.58vs Predicted
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13Columbia University1.71-1.22vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.20-4.25vs Predicted
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15Princeton University2.35-5.50vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University1.11-1.96vs Predicted
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17William and Mary0.21-0.83vs Predicted
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18Hampton University1.77-6.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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4.77Georgetown University3.690.1%1st Place
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7.77University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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6.12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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5.63Georgetown University3.380.1%1st Place
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10.47Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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11.19Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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6.66SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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10.65U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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8.61Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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8.28George Washington University2.680.1%1st Place
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11.42Old Dominion University1.910.0%1st Place
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11.78Columbia University1.710.0%1st Place
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9.75Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
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9.5Princeton University2.350.0%1st Place
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14.04Christopher Newport University1.110.0%1st Place
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16.17William and Mary0.210.0%1st Place
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11.51Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Vickers | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| JC Hermus | 12.3% | 14.1% | 15.1% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Leo Boucher | 10.5% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack Reiter | 12.5% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 2.5% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 7.3% | 3.6% |
| Benton Amthor | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Sawin | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 2.4% |
| Porter Kavle | 6.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| Matt Logue | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| Bridget Groble | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 4.7% |
| Leopold Brandl | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 4.6% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Connor Mraz | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 0.9% |
| Daniel Hodges | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 13.1% | 21.3% | 17.1% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 14.6% | 57.4% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 3.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.