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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.69+3.88vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.38+3.82vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.68+5.38vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+2.39vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.91+6.06vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.91+5.26vs Predicted
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7Washington College2.11+3.41vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.83-0.47vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-2.94vs Predicted
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10Columbia University1.71+2.12vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.63-2.44vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.11+2.19vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.20-3.05vs Predicted
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14Hampton University1.77-2.64vs Predicted
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15Princeton University2.35-5.60vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College3.06-9.22vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-6.18vs Predicted
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18William and Mary0.21-1.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.88Georgetown University3.690.2%1st Place
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5.82Georgetown University3.380.1%1st Place
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8.38George Washington University2.680.1%1st Place
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6.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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11.06Old Dominion University1.910.0%1st Place
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11.26Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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10.41Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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7.53University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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6.06St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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12.12Columbia University1.710.0%1st Place
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8.56Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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14.19Christopher Newport University1.110.0%1st Place
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9.95Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
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11.36Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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9.4Princeton University2.350.0%1st Place
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6.78SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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10.82U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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16.01William and Mary0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Hermus | 15.7% | 14.6% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Reiter | 9.3% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matt Logue | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Jake Vickers | 10.4% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Bridget Groble | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 2.7% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 11.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 4.4% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 2.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Leo Boucher | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Leopold Brandl | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 5.7% |
| Porter Kavle | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Daniel Hodges | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 20.7% | 21.3% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 3.7% |
| Connor Mraz | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Benton Amthor | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 2.2% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 8.1% | 15.2% | 54.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.