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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+9.86vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.83+5.80vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.69+1.80vs Predicted
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4Princeton University2.35+5.41vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.91+6.12vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+0.47vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.63+1.39vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.68+0.16vs Predicted
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9Hampton University1.77+2.69vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.11+4.13vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.20-0.73vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University3.38-6.11vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College3.06-6.40vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute1.91-3.12vs Predicted
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15Washington College2.11-4.64vs Predicted
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16Columbia University1.71-3.99vs Predicted
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17William and Mary0.21-0.84vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-11.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.86U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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7.8University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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4.8Georgetown University3.690.1%1st Place
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9.41Princeton University2.350.0%1st Place
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11.12Old Dominion University1.910.0%1st Place
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6.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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8.39Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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8.16George Washington University2.680.1%1st Place
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11.69Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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14.13Christopher Newport University1.110.0%1st Place
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10.27Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
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5.89Georgetown University3.380.1%1st Place
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6.6SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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10.88Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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10.36Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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12.01Columbia University1.710.0%1st Place
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16.16William and Mary0.210.0%1st Place
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6.01St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Sawin | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 2.8% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| JC Hermus | 14.3% | 13.8% | 14.5% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| Bridget Groble | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 3.4% |
| Jake Vickers | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Porter Kavle | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Matt Logue | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 3.9% |
| Daniel Hodges | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 12.8% | 23.8% | 18.3% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% |
| Jack Reiter | 11.5% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 10.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 2.4% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 1.7% |
| Leopold Brandl | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 6.6% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 14.2% | 56.0% |
| Leo Boucher | 10.0% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.