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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.69+3.85vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.38+3.75vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.83+4.79vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+2.09vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.63+3.32vs Predicted
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6Princeton University2.35+3.46vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14-0.58vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College3.06-1.35vs Predicted
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9Washington College2.11+1.40vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.91+1.42vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.20-0.76vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.68-3.46vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University1.11+0.84vs Predicted
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14Columbia University1.71-2.34vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-4.39vs Predicted
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16Hampton University1.77-4.28vs Predicted
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17William and Mary0.21-0.82vs Predicted
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18Old Dominion University1.91-6.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.85Georgetown University3.690.1%1st Place
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5.75Georgetown University3.380.1%1st Place
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7.79University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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6.09St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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8.32Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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9.46Princeton University2.350.0%1st Place
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6.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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6.65SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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10.4Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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11.42Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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10.24Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
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8.54George Washington University2.680.1%1st Place
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13.84Christopher Newport University1.110.0%1st Place
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11.66Columbia University1.710.0%1st Place
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10.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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11.72Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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16.18William and Mary0.210.0%1st Place
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11.04Old Dominion University1.910.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Hermus | 14.8% | 14.8% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Reiter | 10.3% | 9.1% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Leo Boucher | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Porter Kavle | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Connor Mraz | 4.4% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 1.2% |
| Jake Vickers | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.0% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 1.7% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 3.6% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 2.5% |
| Matt Logue | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Daniel Hodges | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 20.6% | 18.1% |
| Leopold Brandl | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 3.9% |
| Lucas Sawin | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 2.2% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 5.5% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 7.5% | 15.1% | 56.5% |
| Bridget Groble | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 3.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.