← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Fordham University2.63+7.66vs Predicted
-
2Georgetown University3.69+2.82vs Predicted
-
3Webb Institute1.91+8.59vs Predicted
-
4Cornell University2.43+5.13vs Predicted
-
5George Washington University2.74+2.91vs Predicted
-
6University of Pennsylvania2.83+1.70vs Predicted
-
7Princeton University2.35+2.57vs Predicted
-
8Georgetown University3.38-2.39vs Predicted
-
9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14-2.52vs Predicted
-
10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-3.50vs Predicted
-
11SUNY Maritime College3.06-4.06vs Predicted
-
12Washington College2.11-1.24vs Predicted
-
13Christopher Newport University1.63-0.85vs Predicted
-
14Old Dominion University1.52-1.64vs Predicted
-
15Columbia University1.71-3.01vs Predicted
-
16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-5.16vs Predicted
-
17Hampton University1.77-5.08vs Predicted
-
18William and Mary0.21-1.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.66Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
-
4.82Georgetown University3.690.1%1st Place
-
11.59Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
-
9.13Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
-
7.91George Washington University2.740.1%1st Place
-
7.7University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
-
9.57Princeton University2.350.0%1st Place
-
5.61Georgetown University3.380.1%1st Place
-
6.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
-
6.5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
-
6.94SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
-
10.76Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
-
12.15Christopher Newport University1.630.0%1st Place
-
12.36Old Dominion University1.520.0%1st Place
-
11.99Columbia University1.710.0%1st Place
-
10.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
-
11.92Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
-
16.09William and Mary0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porter Kavle | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| JC Hermus | 13.6% | 14.2% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 4.4% |
| Meredith Moran | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% |
| Michael Ehnot | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Jordan Bruce | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| Jack Reiter | 11.6% | 14.1% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jake Vickers | 8.4% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Leo Boucher | 10.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 2.8% |
| Brian Fox | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 6.3% |
| John Glenn | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 9.3% |
| Leopold Brandl | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 5.8% |
| Lucas Sawin | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 3.6% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 5.4% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 13.1% | 58.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.