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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.74+7.33vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+4.47vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+8.02vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.69+0.78vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.06+1.82vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.38-0.25vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14-0.45vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.63+0.40vs Predicted
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9Washington College2.11+1.61vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.91+1.60vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University1.63+1.49vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.43-2.33vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.83-5.36vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.91-2.91vs Predicted
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15Hampton University1.77-3.17vs Predicted
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16William and Mary0.21+0.25vs Predicted
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17Columbia University1.71-4.74vs Predicted
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18Princeton University2.35-8.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.33George Washington University2.740.1%1st Place
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6.47St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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11.02U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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4.78Georgetown University3.690.2%1st Place
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6.82SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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5.75Georgetown University3.380.1%1st Place
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6.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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8.4Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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10.61Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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11.6Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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12.49Christopher Newport University1.630.0%1st Place
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9.67Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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7.64University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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11.09Old Dominion University1.910.0%1st Place
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11.83Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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16.25William and Mary0.210.0%1st Place
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12.26Columbia University1.710.0%1st Place
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9.44Princeton University2.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Ehnot | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Leo Boucher | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Sawin | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 2.6% |
| JC Hermus | 16.3% | 14.3% | 14.2% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 8.6% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Jack Reiter | 11.3% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Jake Vickers | 9.7% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Porter Kavle | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 2.3% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.2% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 4.6% |
| Brian Fox | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 17.3% | 7.0% |
| Meredith Moran | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Bridget Groble | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 4.7% |
| Valerio Palamara | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 6.3% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 12.5% | 60.0% |
| Leopold Brandl | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 8.6% |
| Connor Mraz | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.