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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.91+10.48vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+4.45vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+3.74vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.83+3.64vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+5.68vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.38-0.31vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College3.06-0.20vs Predicted
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8Princeton University2.35+1.48vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University3.69-4.32vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.63-1.23vs Predicted
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11Washington College2.11-0.34vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.91-0.31vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.74-5.07vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.20-4.09vs Predicted
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15Columbia University1.71-2.97vs Predicted
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16William and Mary0.21+0.19vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University1.63-4.48vs Predicted
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18Hampton University1.77-6.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.48Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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6.45St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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6.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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7.64University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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10.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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5.69Georgetown University3.380.1%1st Place
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6.8SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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9.48Princeton University2.350.0%1st Place
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4.68Georgetown University3.690.2%1st Place
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8.77Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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10.66Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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11.69Old Dominion University1.910.0%1st Place
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7.93George Washington University2.740.1%1st Place
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9.91Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
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12.03Columbia University1.710.0%1st Place
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16.19William and Mary0.210.0%1st Place
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12.52Christopher Newport University1.630.0%1st Place
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11.67Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayne Duff | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 4.7% |
| Leo Boucher | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jake Vickers | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Lucas Sawin | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 2.9% |
| Jack Reiter | 11.4% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 0.6% |
| JC Hermus | 15.3% | 16.2% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Porter Kavle | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 4.1% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 2.7% |
| Bridget Groble | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 5.0% |
| Michael Ehnot | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 3.6% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 2.1% |
| Leopold Brandl | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 6.7% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 11.6% | 59.9% |
| Brian Fox | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 14.0% | 9.5% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 4.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.