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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+5.53vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.74+6.31vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.69+1.81vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.83+3.67vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.38+0.69vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.43+3.37vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+3.86vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University1.63+4.33vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14-2.55vs Predicted
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10Princeton University2.35-0.13vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College3.06-4.02vs Predicted
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12Washington College2.11-1.10vs Predicted
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13Hampton University1.77-1.25vs Predicted
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14Columbia University1.71-2.19vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.63-6.51vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.91-4.46vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University1.91-5.48vs Predicted
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18William and Mary0.21-1.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.53St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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8.31George Washington University2.740.0%1st Place
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4.81Georgetown University3.690.2%1st Place
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7.67University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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5.69Georgetown University3.380.1%1st Place
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9.37Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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10.86U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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12.33Christopher Newport University1.630.0%1st Place
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6.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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9.87Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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6.98SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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10.9Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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11.75Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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11.81Columbia University1.710.0%1st Place
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8.49Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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11.54Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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11.52Old Dominion University1.910.0%1st Place
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16.12William and Mary0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 9.0% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Ehnot | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| JC Hermus | 15.3% | 13.2% | 14.0% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Jack Reiter | 12.6% | 12.9% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Meredith Moran | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 2.8% |
| Brian Fox | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 14.7% | 8.0% |
| Jake Vickers | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 0.8% |
| Benton Amthor | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 3.1% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 5.5% |
| Leopold Brandl | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 6.5% |
| Porter Kavle | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 4.9% |
| Bridget Groble | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 4.7% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 11.4% | 60.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.