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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+5.50vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.35+5.82vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.47vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.35+3.51vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.93+0.57vs Predicted
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6Washington College1.02+6.56vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.16+1.34vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.69+2.08vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.54-2.24vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.93-0.56vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.63-4.33vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.49-4.66vs Predicted
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13Princeton University1.08-0.84vs Predicted
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14Hampton University0.81-1.00vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-6.29vs Predicted
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16William and Mary0.68-2.33vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University0.78-3.57vs Predicted
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18Columbia University-0.33-2.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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7.82SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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5.47St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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7.51University of Pennsylvania2.350.1%1st Place
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5.57Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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12.56Washington College1.020.0%1st Place
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8.34Fordham University2.160.1%1st Place
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10.08Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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6.76Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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9.44Old Dominion University1.930.1%1st Place
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6.67George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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7.34U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
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12.16Princeton University1.080.0%1st Place
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13.0Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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8.71U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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13.67William and Mary0.680.0%1st Place
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13.43Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
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15.96Columbia University-0.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Carraway | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.4% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Javier Garcon | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Scott Mais | 13.0% | 14.1% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Heim | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 7.0% |
| Clayton Snyder | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 0.8% |
| Lilly Myers | 7.9% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Cameron Feves | 8.5% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Gray Benson | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Asher Green | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 5.1% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 14.8% | 13.6% | 9.5% |
| Michael Burns | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Nathan Whisner | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 13.4% | 18.9% | 12.5% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 11.7% | 13.2% | 17.1% | 11.6% |
| Alexander Yuen | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 10.5% | 14.4% | 51.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.