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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.22+3.92vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+4.46vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.80+3.16vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.63+2.44vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.69+4.92vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.54+0.97vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.93+2.14vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-2.63vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.35-1.49vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.35-2.23vs Predicted
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11Washington College1.02+1.42vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.16-3.42vs Predicted
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13Hampton University0.81-0.16vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73-4.39vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.78-1.93vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.34-1.53vs Predicted
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17William and Mary0.68-3.45vs Predicted
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18Columbia University-0.33-2.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.92Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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6.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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6.16U. S. Naval Academy2.800.1%1st Place
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6.44George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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9.92Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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6.97Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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9.14Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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5.37St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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7.51University of Pennsylvania2.350.1%1st Place
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7.77SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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12.42Washington College1.020.0%1st Place
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8.58Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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12.84Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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9.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
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13.07Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
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14.47Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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13.55William and Mary0.680.0%1st Place
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15.81Columbia University-0.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 14.1% | 15.1% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Carraway | 7.7% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 9.5% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Feves | 9.2% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| Lilly Myers | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.2% | 13.3% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Javier Garcon | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Alex Heim | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 13.5% | 10.1% | 5.4% |
| Clayton Snyder | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 13.8% | 7.3% |
| John McKenna | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 13.9% | 13.0% | 8.9% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 12.3% | 14.8% | 18.7% | 19.5% |
| Nathan Whisner | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 13.4% | 16.8% | 11.4% |
| Alexander Yuen | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 11.6% | 18.7% | 44.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.