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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.63+5.74vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.54+5.08vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+3.39vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.36vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.80+0.98vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.93+3.19vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.22-2.36vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.69+1.87vs Predicted
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9Washington College1.02+3.38vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.35-2.26vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.16-2.64vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.35-4.11vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73-3.34vs Predicted
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14William and Mary0.68-0.84vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.34-0.58vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.78-2.79vs Predicted
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17Hampton University0.81-3.85vs Predicted
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18Columbia University-0.33-2.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.74George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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7.08Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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6.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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5.36St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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5.98U. S. Naval Academy2.800.1%1st Place
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9.19Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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4.64Georgetown University3.220.2%1st Place
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9.87Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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12.38Washington College1.020.0%1st Place
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7.74University of Pennsylvania2.350.1%1st Place
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8.36Fordham University2.160.1%1st Place
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7.89SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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9.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
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13.16William and Mary0.680.0%1st Place
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14.42Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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13.21Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
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13.15Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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15.79Columbia University-0.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Feves | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Lilly Myers | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Charles Carraway | 8.7% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 14.1% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 9.6% | 12.8% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Mariner Fagan | 15.2% | 17.0% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Alex Heim | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 5.0% |
| Javier Garcon | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Clayton Snyder | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| John McKenna | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Nathan Whisner | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 14.9% | 13.4% | 10.0% |
| Jasper Waldman | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 14.3% | 21.2% | 18.8% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 14.7% | 9.4% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 14.0% | 13.4% | 9.3% |
| Alexander Yuen | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 6.7% | 10.3% | 18.1% | 45.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.