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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+5.59vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.60vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.80+3.23vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.69+5.96vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.22-0.23vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.16+2.39vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.54-0.02vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.93+1.14vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-0.29vs Predicted
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10Washington College1.02+2.63vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.63-4.25vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.35-4.08vs Predicted
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13William and Mary0.68+0.28vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College2.35-6.60vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.78-1.81vs Predicted
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16Hampton University0.81-2.83vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.34-2.50vs Predicted
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18Columbia University-0.33-2.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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5.6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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6.23U. S. Naval Academy2.800.1%1st Place
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9.96Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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4.77Georgetown University3.220.2%1st Place
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8.39Fordham University2.160.1%1st Place
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6.98Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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9.14Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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8.71U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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12.63Washington College1.020.0%1st Place
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6.75George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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7.92University of Pennsylvania2.350.1%1st Place
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13.28William and Mary0.680.0%1st Place
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7.4SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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13.19Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
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13.17Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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14.5Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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15.8Columbia University-0.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Carraway | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.2% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% |
| Mariner Fagan | 16.9% | 15.6% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clayton Snyder | 5.7% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Lilly Myers | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Michael Burns | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Alex Heim | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 8.6% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 5.5% |
| Cameron Feves | 8.5% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Javier Garcon | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Whisner | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 15.0% | 10.4% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 16.4% | 12.6% | 8.9% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 13.5% | 14.2% | 8.3% |
| Jasper Waldman | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 10.9% | 14.4% | 19.9% | 20.4% |
| Alexander Yuen | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 12.7% | 18.3% | 43.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.