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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.70vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.54+5.24vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.16+5.65vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.22+0.75vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.80+1.13vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+2.87vs Predicted
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7Washington College1.02+5.56vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-1.65vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.93+0.33vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.63-3.05vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.35-3.19vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.69-1.46vs Predicted
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13Princeton University1.08-0.73vs Predicted
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14William and Mary0.68-0.59vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College2.35-7.32vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.78-2.54vs Predicted
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17Columbia University-0.33-0.85vs Predicted
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18Hampton University0.81-4.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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7.24Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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8.65Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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4.75Georgetown University3.220.2%1st Place
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6.13U. S. Naval Academy2.800.1%1st Place
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8.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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12.56Washington College1.020.0%1st Place
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6.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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9.33Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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6.95George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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7.81University of Pennsylvania2.350.1%1st Place
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10.54Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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12.27Princeton University1.080.0%1st Place
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13.41William and Mary0.680.0%1st Place
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7.68SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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13.46Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
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16.15Columbia University-0.330.0%1st Place
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13.18Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 11.0% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lilly Myers | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Clayton Snyder | 4.6% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Mariner Fagan | 15.3% | 15.9% | 13.7% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 10.5% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Burns | 4.9% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Alex Heim | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 16.0% | 11.4% | 6.3% |
| Charles Carraway | 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Cameron Feves | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Javier Garcon | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 1.4% |
| Asher Green | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 5.0% |
| Nathan Whisner | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 18.2% | 11.2% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 16.4% | 11.3% |
| Alexander Yuen | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 8.8% | 14.4% | 54.1% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 13.2% | 14.5% | 14.8% | 9.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.