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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.63+5.82vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+4.52vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.56vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.22+0.68vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.80+1.08vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.35+1.61vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.69+3.04vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.54-1.11vs Predicted
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9Princeton University1.08+3.13vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.93-0.60vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.16-2.53vs Predicted
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12Washington College1.02+0.56vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.78-0.13vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College2.35-6.61vs Predicted
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15William and Mary-0.81+1.59vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-7.25vs Predicted
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17Hampton University0.81-3.94vs Predicted
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18Columbia University-0.33-2.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.82George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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6.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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5.56St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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4.68Georgetown University3.220.2%1st Place
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6.08U. S. Naval Academy2.800.1%1st Place
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7.61University of Pennsylvania2.350.1%1st Place
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10.04Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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6.89Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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12.13Princeton University1.080.0%1st Place
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9.4Old Dominion University1.930.1%1st Place
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8.47Fordham University2.160.1%1st Place
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12.56Washington College1.020.0%1st Place
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12.87Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
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7.39SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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16.59William and Mary-0.810.0%1st Place
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8.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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13.06Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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15.59Columbia University-0.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Feves | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Carraway | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.8% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 16.4% | 13.9% | 14.0% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 10.3% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Javier Garcon | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Lilly Myers | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Asher Green | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 14.6% | 12.2% | 7.6% | 2.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.3% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Clayton Snyder | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Alex Heim | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 12.5% | 15.0% | 14.0% | 9.8% | 3.4% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 16.1% | 13.4% | 4.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Julia Hudson | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 8.5% | 19.4% | 55.5% |
| Michael Burns | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 14.8% | 17.3% | 12.9% | 5.2% |
| Alexander Yuen | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 12.6% | 31.9% | 28.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.